Question on Seats at US schools

If the University of Maryland a typical state medical school is like this:

  • In reply to:


Quote:

How many applications does the University of Maryland School of Medicine receive?

At the end of 2007 cycle 4,508 applications had been received for the 2007 entering class. There are a 160 spots in the new first year class.

and

Quote:

What are the average MCAT score and GPA of accepted students?

Accepted students in the 2007 entering freshmen class had an average GPA 3.67 and an average MCAT score of 31.

And then this

Quote:

M.D. Application

Academic Requirements

The MCAT and at least 90 semester hours of accredited arts and science college credit are required. Credit hours must have been earned in colleges or universities whose names appear on the current list of Accredited Institutions of Higher Education as compiled by the National Committee of Regional Accrediting Agencies of the United States. Preference is given to applicants who will have earned a bachelor’s degree. The following courses must be completed, with a grade of C or better, prior to matriculation

All the university of Maryland



Then only 3.5% get accepted each year

Not many

I think this:

The min requirements make it look like there is a shot for some of these people but what the average accepted student above says volumes to me, it says that no way will a 3.0 and 26 get into a US school,

This is just one school and example but I could with time prove the case that the cards are greatly stacked against getting into a US school unless you have an awesome undergrad.

Yes a post bac can help but only if the undergrad is 3.0 ish or better.

Is it like this at all the schools in the US, is the acceptances like 3 to 5% of the numbers that apply? If so then its harder then we think to get into US schools.

I thought 40% but it seems I may be greatly mistaken.

As always, the picture is more complicated than it looks. Many state schools accept a larger percentage of in-state students than out-of-state, and may get more applicants from out of state. The private school I attend gets a whole lot of applicants from out of state because it’s pretty nice and fairly reasonably priced as private schools go, but it’s relatively easy for state residents to get in.


You still have to do the work, get some nice shiny new grades to overcome any old ones, demonstrate that you are better, stronger, faster now than when you got whatever the old grades were, and put together a competitive package, but it is not necessarily true that having a less-than-stellar cumulative undegrad GPA will keep you out of US med schools.


It’s just flat-out complicated.

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” attributed to Benjamin Disraeli and popularized in the U.S. by Mark Twain


While the statistic is on University of Maryland is wholly accurate, the mathematical model assumes a single application pool at a single school. Obviously, the applicant pool goes across multiple schools: one person will apply to multiple schools, may get multiple acceptances, but can only matriculate at a single school. A more accurate picture would presented the data from the AAMC under the table.





http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2007/2007s lrmat5.ht…


This shows the data across each states and then summarizes thru regions and then all of the US. Generally about 42% of all applicants matriculate. This covers only US MD schools


BTW, there is a whole array of statistics available at the AAMC website

  • gonnif Said:
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" attributed to Benjamin Disraeli and popularized in the U.S. by Mark Twain

While the statistic is on University of Maryland is wholly accurate, the mathematical model assumes a single application pool at a single school. Obviously, the applicant pool goes across multiple schools: one person will apply to multiple schools, may get multiple acceptances, but can only matriculate at a single school. A more accurate picture would presented the data from the AAMC under the table.



http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2007/2007s lrmat5.ht...

This shows the data across each states and then summarizes thru regions and then all of the US. Generally about 42% of all applicants matriculate. This covers only US MD schools

BTW, there is a whole array of statistics available at the AAMC website



Hey I agree because thats where I get my "40%" number from, just you look at this state school and they say they accepted 310 for 160 seats, and it makes this a game like, since 150 will not able to attend. So that other 150 are accepted elsewhere? I think thats too much an assumption, I know people are waitlisted at a school and thats it no other acceptances some years.

It’s only speculation, but suppose you looked only at accepted students with below-average GPA/MCATs and compared those with stats for rejected students. What might that reveal? The whole convoluted mess reminds me that when looking at statistics, research conclusions, etc. we have to be aware that analysis is always more narrow than reality. Sometimes, anecdotal evidence is relevant. For instance, I have three former colleagues who have been accepted to in-state medical schools with credentials which barely qualified. Two of them went on to become chief resident - one of those at Yale. Go figure…

  • ViceroyPlain05 Said:
It's only speculation, but suppose you looked only at accepted students with below-average GPA/MCATs and compared those with stats for rejected students. What might that reveal? The whole convoluted mess reminds me that when looking at statistics, research conclusions, etc. we have to be aware that analysis is always more narrow than reality. Sometimes, anecdotal evidence is relevant. For instance, I have three former colleagues who have been accepted to in-state medical schools with credentials which barely qualified. Two of them went on to become chief resident - one of those at Yale. Go figure...



On the Accepted with Low stats, on one site a poster pointed to MD applicants, a site I do not like since there is no control on what the truth is, they showed 2.8 and 3.0 getting in, I looked up these examples and if you read the whole thing the MD applicant stated that they also did a Post Bac and had a 3.5 or higher in the Post Bac, this only proves that a Lower GPA with a Post Bac can work.

Also one example stated they applied to 22 schools three years in a row and was only accepted at one school the 3rd year.

So there are stats and then reality.

How many of us that are over 35 with a family could be strung along and spend the time, emotional and real money applying to 20 odd schools, paying back student loans praying to get into a US medical school for 3 or more years? I could not do that to my family thats why I went Caribbean.




Then only 3.5% get accepted each year


Not many


I think this:


The min requirements make it look like there is a shot for some of these people but what the average accepted student above says volumes to me, it says that no way will a 3.0 and 26 get into a US school,


This is just one school and example but I could with time prove the case that the cards are greatly stacked against getting into a US school unless you have an awesome undergrad.


Yes a post bac can help but only if the undergrad is 3.0 ish or better.


Is it like this at all the schools in the US, is the acceptances like 3 to 5% of the numbers that apply? If so then its harder then we think to get into US schools.


I thought 40% but it seems I may be greatly mistaken.



There are lies, d** lies, and then there are statistics??

Ok, try this out, rough numbers, AAMC, there are around 40,000 applicants per year, +/-, who apply to around 15 schools each = 600,000 applications total. Roughly 17,200 spots at US allopathic schools now, excluding DO. 17,200 slots/600,000 applications = 2.9% rate of persons who applied to one school will attend that school. Of some interest (I think) is that often schools don't share the number of acceptances, but rather matriculants only. Tough process, but not quite as stacked against the applicant as one would think.

Alternate way to look at it is there are around 40,000 applicants for 17,200 or so seats = 43% acceptance rate. And a number of those 40,000 are reapplicants, so true overall acceptance rate (considering some have to apply 2,3, 4x) is higher than the 43%

There are two different questions being asked statistically here so lets just clarify them:


1)matriculants as a percentage of the number of APPLICANTS at ANY US medical school. This is a direct (apples to apples) result with people as applicants compared to people as matriculants


2) matriculants as a percentage of the the number of APPLICATIONS at a SPECIFIC US medical school. Direct comparison here would be considered an “ecological fallacy” (ie apples to oranges) in social statistics as you are comparing documents (ie applications) to people (ie matriculants). You can deduce or infer the chances of getting into a specific medical school. But then a second error would occur by generalizing that the chances of getting into a SPECIFIC medical school are the same of getting into ANY medical school


In 2007 there were 546,817 applications resulting in 17,759 matriculants. And noted on the AAMC table 546,817 is the number of applications from 42,315 applicants, an average of 13 applications per applicant.


http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2007/2007s chool.htm


BTW, one of the other tables breaks out first time applicants from total applicants. It would be nice to have the breakdown for acceptances from first time versus repeat applicants but the AAMC doesn’t make that available


http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2007/0507s umyrs.htm


Applicants… 42,315


First Time Applicants… 31,946


Accepted… 18,858


Matriculated… 17,759


I have no data on Osteopathic schools